The Lake Tahoe Real Estate Market is Battling Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt

The North Lake Tahoe, CA real estate market has significantly slowed over the last 4 months due to uncertainty, fear of a possible recession, a weak stock market, and rising mortgage interest rates. Although the market has slowed in terms of buyer activity and the volume of homes sold, pricing remains stabilized due to historically low inventory levels. Buyers remain excited about the long term enjoyment that owning Lake Tahoe property provides. 

Tahoe Sellers Are Not Overly Motivated in The Current Market

Most Lake Tahoe sellers have significant home equity and enjoy the utility of their Tahoe vacation homes, so we have yet to see substantial pricing erosion, which is more common with distressed sales. Today, sellers that list their homes witness longer marketing times, but buyers remain active, so it’s still possible to sell near the all-time high pricing. Most Tahoe neighborhoods suffer from a lack of inventory, so new listings get a lot of attention, especially well-cared-for homes in desirable neighborhoods. Updated and new construction homes are seeing strong buyer activity, and some of these properties are still receiving multiple offers if priced correctly. Buyers are discerning in the current market, so pricing a house correctly is more crucial than ever.

The Best Opportunities are Selling Quickly

Fewer sales are taking place due to lower buyer demand, yet inventory levels remain historically low, which has led to stabilized market conditions. Buyers remain excited about newer homes, updated homes, and properties located within desirable communities. Inversely, older/dated homes with differed maintenance issues are taking longer to sell as the market is timid when purchasing homes that need significant improvements, even if priced well within the market segment. The best-priced homes are moving quickly, while other listings tend to linger on the market, often requiring price reductions.

Year over Year Market Conditions and Value Trends

Lake Tahoe Real Estate August 2022 Market Report Sales Chart

Lake Tahoe Real Estate August 2022 Sales Volume Chart

*North Lake Tahoe, CA and Truckee Single-Family Home sales including lakefronts. Data is taken from the Tahoe-Sierra Board of Realtors, MLS Areas 1-9.

Absorption Rate: 3.25 Months of Inventory = Hybrid Seller / Balanced Market

The term absorption rate refers to a metric used in a specific real estate market to evaluate the rate at which available homes are sold during a given period of time. Here are the metrics and absorption rate for the North Lake Tahoe, CA and Truckee real estate market.

Absorption Rate (single-family homes)

• 547 Sales in the Last 6 Months
• 91 Sales per Month
• 3 Sales Per Day
• 296 Current Active Listings
• 296 Listings / 91 Sales Per Month = 3.25 Months of Inventory = Hybrid Seller/Balanced Market
• 1 to 3 Month Supply of Inventory = Seller’s Market
• 4- 6 Months of Inventory = Balanced Market
• 6+ Months of Inventory = Buyer’s Market

Currently, there are 113 pending homes in escrow with an average list price of $1.6M and a median price of $1.15M, which shows that Tahoe home pricing remains on sound footing. Whenever pending sale volume exceeds average closed sale volume, we view that as a positive signal as it shows that the homes are still selling at a modest clip.

The Absorption Rate Improved in August

Inventory levels appear to have peaked in August, and it seems that there will be fewer listings on the market in the remaining months of 2022. Over the last 30 days, the absorption of Tahoe housing inventory has fallen by .75%, which means that homes are selling faster in August than in July. If this momentum sticks and fewer homes come on the market in Q4, then demand will outpace supply heading into the winter, which is typically a constrained inventory time period, helping to further stabilize the market.

A Stabilized Market Provides Opportunity for Buyers and Sellers Alike

Although the frantic market conditions of the last few years have subsided, the Tahoe real estate market remains on sound footing, creating opportunities for buyers and sellers alike. We have entered a new chapter where fewer buyers exist in the market, inventory levels have increased, and home prices have stabilized. At this point, we do not anticipate above-average inventory increases, which should keep pricing stable as we move towards the 4th quarter.

Lake Tahoe Real Estate Market Report Archive

View All Tahoe Real Estate Market Reports
August 2021 Real Estate Market Report
August 2020 Real Estate Market Report 

Contact Dave Westall – Lake Tahoe Real Estate Agent

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