Tahoe Luxury Home Sales Continue to Dominate Amidst an Inventory Constrained Market
Lake Tahoe real estate inventory remains scarce as we careen towards winter, making the purchase process challenging for buyers looking to obtain a Tahoe getaway. The current absorption rate shows that we have 29 days of inventory, indicating an extreme seller’s market in which multiple offers are common, with most homes selling over the asking price. New inventory is coming on the market at a snail’s pace, but we continue to see good-quality homes pop up. Astute buyers are prepared to make purchase decisions quickly and effectively, which means that good homes are selling quickly in this inventory-constrained market.
Lake Tahoe Real Estate Market Report October 2021 Highlights
- 56% of sales in October were priced over $1M
- Lahontan posted its all-time high sale at $6.1M
- Average Home Price = $1.39M Up 6%
- Median Home Price = $1.1M Up 31%
- Sales volume of $3M+ homes is Up 17%
- Average Marketing Time = 28 Days Down 15%
- YTD: 606 sales over $1M Up 30%
- YTD: 109 sales over $3M Up 20%
Low Housing Inventory Has Buyers Taking a Measured Approach
Buyer demand has not eased at this point, but low inventory levels keep many buyers on the sidelines, which is why October sales volume was down 55% year over year. October 2020 was the height of the pandemic, with numerous homes for sale to satiate the voracious appetite of buyers looking to live and work remotely in the Tahoe region. In 2021, buyers are still looking to purchase into the market, but they are measured with their approach and are less willing to overpay for properties. This has resulted in the average days on market (DOM) for active listings to rise to 76 days versus pending sales which only have 34 DOM. Desirable properties that are priced within reason are selling quickly, while less desirable properties are taking longer to sell.
Year over Year Market Conditions and Value Trends
October 2021 Statistics
- 89 Single Family Home Sales Down 55%
- Marketing Time: 28 Days Down 15%
- List to Sold Ratio: 102% Up 129%
- Total Sales Volume: $123M Down 53%
- Average Price: $1.39M Up 6%
- Median Price: $1.1M Up 31%
- 0 REO & Short Sales Even
- 1 Sale Below $400K Down 80%
- 57 Sales over $1M Down 30%
- 7 Sales over $3M Down 56%
- High Sale Price: $6.1M Down 51%
- Low Sale Price: $335K Up 19%
October 2020 Statistics
- 200 Single Family Home Sales
- Marketing Time: 33 Days
- List to Sold Ratio: 94.5%
- Total Sales Volume: $262M
- Average price: $1.31M
- Median Price: $850K
- 0 REO & Short Sales
- 5 Sales Below $400K
- 81 Sales over $1M
- 16 Sales over $3M
- High Sale Price: $12.5M
- Low Sale Price: $280K
Lake Tahoe Real Estate October 2021 Market Report Sales Chart
Lake Tahoe Real Estate October 2021 Sales Volume Chart
*North Lake Tahoe, CA and Truckee Single-Family Home sales including lakefronts. Data is taken from the Tahoe-Sierra Board of Realtors, MLS Areas 1-9.
Absorption Rate: Only 29 Days of Inventory = Extreme Seller’s Market
The term absorption rate refers to a metric used in a specific real estate market to evaluate the rate at which available homes are sold during a given time period. Here are the metrics and absorption rate for the North Lake Tahoe, CA and Truckee real estate market.
Absorption Rate (single-family homes)
- 783 Sales in the Last 6 Months
- 130.5 Sales per Month
- 4.3 Sales Per Day
- 126 Active Listings
- 126 Listings / 4.3 Sales Per Day = 29 Days of Inventory
- >2 Months of Inventory = Strong Seller’s Market
- High Rates of Appreciation and Regular Multiple Offer Situations
- 1 to 3 Month Supply of Inventory = Seller’s Market
- 4- 6 Months of Inventory = Balanced Market
- 6+ Months of Inventory = Buyer’s Market
Currently, there are 132 pending homes in escrow with an average list price of $1.99M and a median list price of $1.29M, which shows that the market remains bullish as pricing continues to rise in this inventory-constrained market.
When Will the Lake Tahoe Real Estate Market Slow Down?
To stabilize the market, we need 4-6 months of inventory or a total of 522 active listings. Currently, we have 1 month of inventory, which means that we need 390 new single-family listings to achieve stabilization. Inventory is coming on the market at a painfully slow rate, and we are no were close to having supply and demand in equilibrium.
During the winter months, we typically see inventory go down to the lowest levels of the year. With winter quickly approaching, it does not seem that market stabilization will take place in the near term, and it’s unlikely that stabilization will take place within the next 6-10 months.
If you’re considering selling your Tahoe/Truckee property, buyer demand is feverish, and inventory is constrained, creating an opportunistic time to sell your home and possibly generate a record sale in your neighborhood. If you were to list your Tahoe home for sale now, all eyes would be on your property and you would have little competition in the market, which will inevitably help you achieve your goals.
Lake Tahoe Real Estate Market Report Archive
Contact Dave Westall – Lake Tahoe Real Estate Agent
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